Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way.

Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was 4.2% vs 4.0 expected) was hotter than expected. Not exactly a scenario that supports a pause/drop.

Unless VIX plunges below 18.58, this ramp job should be faded.

continued for members…

The equity picture shows ES backtesting the SMA10 and TL from May 4.

Of course, we won’t be surprised if VX “breaks down” again. EURUSD is certainly breaking down – bearish for stocks. But, USDJPY is ramping higher in hopes of propping up NKD. Net effect is DXY continuing to rally – a net negative for equities.

Likewise, CL and RB are both faltering. This leaves TNX slightly higher.

And, the 2Y much higher.

Driving the 2s10s down to -69 bps.

Stay frosty…