Futures are struggling after an overnight ramp job driven by VIX’s retreat from its 200-day moving average. Aside from the technicals, we see more and more analysts echoing our view that a rate cut makes little sense at this time.
Our charts indicate three distinct and very concerning tripwires for equity investors which, depending on what the FOMC decides, suggest substantial downside.
continued for members…
These risks are in addition to the fact that ES faces important overhead resistance at its 1.618.
The first is that VIX, in breaking out of the little red channel, is testing its SMA200 at the same time that its RSI is threatening a breakout.
We still maintain that the euro’s weakness (DXY strength) will be a serious headwind for stocks.
The second is that the 10Y continues to threaten a breakout.
And, the third is that the 2s10s has (slightly) broken out beyond the little trend line which, of course, represents a major breakout above the zero line. 
UPDATE: 3:45 PM
So, it’s a hawkish cut. The 10Y has reached 4.5%; VIX has pushed past our 22.16 target; SPX is down 150 points; EURUSD is off over 1%; DXY is up 1.3%. It will probably get worse.
