They’re all important, but this one carries extra significance due to the potential for a slowdown in rate hikes, or at least the commentary regarding one.

Futures almost backtested the 200-day moving average overnight, but are now essentially flat.

After all the excitement yesterday, our targets remain the same across the board. If anything, the hoopla complicated the Fed’s task by aptly demonstrating the persistent froth in the markets.

I believe this practically guarantees that Powell will pull another Jackson Hole and scold investors for their irrational exuberance. Whether it will be enough to counteract the OPEX effect is anyone’s guess.

continued for members…The equity picture is best seen in the SPY chart: the channel top is officially tagged.Likewise for ES and SPX.  The messy details:

Note that the 10/20 cross is again a possibility. Unless VIX tanks below 21.96 again today, we should see a 10/20 cross. Currencies are still being supportive, with EURUSD managing to hold on a little longer – though no new highs today. DXY is quite oversold, spending the past month hovering around 31-33. The last time it did this was in May 2021, when it began its run from 89 to 115. If we get a repeat of that bounce, it would likely put a damper on GC’s recent “breakout.” SI seems hellbent on reaching its .786 by YE.CL and RB have pushed above their SMA10, which technically justifies a long position. Personally, I’d keep tight stops on – especially for RB. I believe there’s a real risk of Powell unnerving the bulls today, though it might take interest rates lower in a risk off reaction. TNX’s SMA200 is now within striking distance, though the timeline remains murky – especially as we head into OPEX and the end of the year.