With the greatest number of dissenters since 1992, the FOMC declined to alter the discount rate. Miran, of course, voted for a rate cut. But, the other 3 dissenters didn’t “support the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.” The statement that prompted the dissent suggested that additional cuts lie ahead:

In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

It’s a tough bias to stomach given that inflation is well north of the Fed’s 2% target and headed in the wrong direction. CPI was 3.26% and PCE just came in at 0.7% monthly and 3.5% YoY.

But, a few of the Mag 7 reported solid earnings, WTI back off yesterday’s sharp rally, DXY is still cratering, and VIX is threatening to break down, so the algos are happy (i.e. futures are higher.)

SPX’s SMA200 is approaching the last falling channel, so we should know in the next day or two whether the overdue backtest and gap fill will be permitted. Given the rumors about Trump resuming bombing in Iran, there’s a pretty good chance. I guess Trump has yet to come to grips with the fact that his tough guy act causes many of his enemies to dig in even harder (e.g. Iran, Powell, Comey, etc.)

No doubt some of his base appreciates the kabuki theater. But, according to polls, even the hard core MAGA is tiring of the war he promised would never happen, the inflation he promised would go away on day one, the war in Ukraine he promised would go away before he even took office, political corruption, etc.