Futures are up about 1% this morning – par for the course for an options expiration Friday. The Chinese prime rate cut is no doubt helping.

But, what happens next week as new and pending home sales, durable goods, FOMC minutes, GDP, PCE and Michigan Sentiment come rolling in? This will be a serious test of the market’s ability to hold its lows, let alone continue to bounce.

continued for members…Our analog calls for the bounce to run until early June, ideally Jun 3. But, it won’t be easy, especially after the near failure of the initial 5% bounce. Lots of moving averages and Fib resistance to break through on the way there… VIX has room to drop, with the 10/20 cross unwinding today.  It will likely play an important role in stocks getting to SPX 4210. A drop through the TL from Apr and below the SMA200 would help. I believe currencies will soon be able to help as well. Even though EURUSD is potentially wrapping up its bounce… …USDJPY is potentially wrapping up its backtest and could be preparing to run. Gold and silver are doing just fine – though still just backtesting.

And, BTC is still sleeping fitfully at the .618 – no doubt with nightmares featuring a falling sensation.Oil and gas are still ratcheting higher, but have backed off their threats of new highs. And, the 10Y is getting ever closer to an important test. A drop through that trend line, even if it’s the result of a sharp equity selloff, would be welcome relief to the Fed.

I’ll be on the road the rest of the day, but will post over the weekend if anything unexpected occurs.

GLTA.