PCE in Line

January headline PCE registered a 0.3% increase MoM (0.4% Core) which was in line with most estimates. YoY, headline PCE rose 2.4% versus 2.6% in December, while core PCE rose 2.8%, down from 2.9% in December.

In other economic data, personal income rose to 1.0% MoM from 0.3% in December and personal spending rose at a 0.2% rate versus 0.7% in December.

Algos cheered the data, with futures swinging from a moderate loss to a moderate gain in seconds.

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ES inched closer to its white 1.272 at 5163.55 (5179.57 for SPX.)

Should the strength continue, the big question is that of timing. To reach its 1.272, SPX can bump along at the top of the purple sub-channel or it can break out by remaining in the rising green channel. It seems to have forgotten about a backtest, except for the fact that we haven’t yet seen new lows for VIX.

In addition, the Dow reached its 1.272 Fib extension on Feb 23. Unless it pushes through, it would normally see a reversal here, to as low as the 36,952 former highs. Currencies are still supportive of stocks, with EURUSD in its eighth day of SMA200 habitation and DXY still seemingly stuck at its.USDJPY is still hanging around new highs. But, with NKD at new highs there’s no real need to beat up the yen any more. Gold and silver are both getting a little bump – perhaps settling into their roles as the poor man’s bitcoin.

Speaking of which, BTCUSD completely ignored the .786 and has reached its .886. It seems completely out of control. But, it it’s going to show any weakness, this is the spot.

CL and RB continue their march higher…

…but, the 10Y is taking its cues from the in-line economic data for now.Stay tuned…