Futures bounced over 1% overnight into OPEX, but are now flirting with negative readings.
continued for members…
Once we get past OPEX, there’s a good chance things will accelerate to the downside. But, at some point, the analog would suggest a long (not necessarily big) bounce between now and July 19ish. Given that this is OPEX and a 3-day weekend, there’s a reasonably good chance it will start today.
But, we could also get a sharp 4th wave crack down to 3505 or even 3398 and a time killing bounce prior to the last wave down around July 19.
It’s been a while since I posted this – the 2000-2003 path we’re following so far. 
It’s interesting to contemplate – though remember every analog breaks down eventually. When the Fed feels they have inflation under control and can afford to bring rates back down, they’ll do it in a nanosecond – potentially choking off any further downside. 
Note that VIX’s 10/20 cross has happened and is taking hold. The fan line is around 33.20. But, I’m not expecting a breakout until Tuesday.
USDJPY is bouncing this morning after backtesting its breakout. This, along with EURUSD’s bounce yesterday (unwinding today) is responsible for most of futures’ rebound and the DXY’s surge.
Oil and gas are both off this morning, 2.5% and 4.6% respectively. I think we’ve going to finally get those backtests we’ve been expecting.
This, of course, is enabling the 10Y’s long awaited backtest of its own breakout.
Just a reminder, markets are closed on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone.