Futures have been all over the map, but ES’ flag pattern is still intact.  All of our targets remain unchanged. Look out below.

continued for members…

The bigger picture:

According to COMP, the next leg down is due either today or Monday.VIX has managed not to break down……and DXY continues to strengthen.

While CL and RB continue to run… …which is bad news for anyone hoping for lower interest rates.

GC, SI and BTC all continue to settle lower. BTC continues to struggle to regain its SMA10.

Last, don’t look now but the 2s10s just broke down.

More later…

UPDATE:  EOD

Another crazy day, with SPX and ES closing right at their SMA200s thanks to VIX breaking down in the last hour.

Of course, AAPL’s pop back above its neckline on a 7% daily gain didn’t hurt the market either.

No inflation problems here…The flag patterns are intact – no harm done – but the channels/TLs have been challenged. It’s either a breakout or a pretty sneaky headfake. But, with Monday being the last day of the month, I wouldn’t be shocked if we had to wait until Tuesday to find out which.  Have a great weekend everyone.

UPDATE:  Saturday, 9PM

Just noticed that BTC has slipped up above its SMA10 just a little bit. It has done this on a number of occasions without much effect. If it manages to hold above it for more than a few days, this would enable it to break out of the falling black channel top and would open up a number of potential upside targets.

I feel there is a decent chance of this occurring, as it should have a significant bounce off its .886. The red .618 at 44,032 would be a reasonable target as it also marks the neckline of the recently completed H&S Pattern.

This would mean the channel bottom might not come into play until March – a reasonable assumption if the Fed intends to support markets as much as possible until then.

The RSI chart fully supports the importance of BTC’s falling black channel top being quite important. 

We’ve had a very nice run shorting BTC. For anyone still short after the .886 target was tagged, know that the risk is rising and will be much higher in the event of a breakout.