SPX has been threatening to break back above its 200-day moving average ever since Jan 23. Despite numerous vigorous attempts, it remains below it, signalling more downside ahead.
It’s time for the bears to put up or shut up.
continued for members…The bigger picture has scarcely changed since last week. ES, SPX and COMP have all broken out of the channels they’ve been in since the top, but that’s about all they’ve done.
VIX, on the other hand, has broken down below the dashed blue trend line – suggesting that it will continue lower and aid further upside for stocks. Yet, it hasn’t broken down below its SMA10 – suggesting it is nothing more than your typical end-of-month headfake. 
CL and RB continue to push higher on growing fears of a shooting war in Ukraine…
…with NG – most vulnerable to Russia’s whims – making the biggest move.
If war actually breaks out, will almost certainly drive TNX much lower regardless of oil/gas prices.
The DXY is digesting some of its gains this morning, weakening slightly against the euro.
GC and SI are up very slightly… 
…while BTC has backed off (for now) its threat to break out.
continuing…