When PCE (like CPI and PPI) runs hot but GDP does not. and real disposable income is the lowest since 2022, it’s a pretty good sign of stagflation.  From our friends at Briefing.com:

But…AI!  So, the market is relatively flat, and keeps bouncing back no matter what the economy throws at it.

VIX and VX are still working to keep stocks afloat. No signs yet of a bounce.

WTI is up a few percent as the latest “the war is over” proclamations are tossed in the bin.

And, that’s putting pressure on the 10Y, which closed the gap at 4.5 and is nudging the TL from Feb. If it weren’t for the RSI breaking down and an very interventionist administration, I’d be certain of a bounce here. But, those aren’t the cards we’ve been dealt.