In a CNBC interview this morning, Fed President Jim Bullard said “Our credibility is on the line here…”  Anyone paying any attention to the Fed knows that that ship sailed a long time ago.

Futures have been all over the map, down as many as 55 points before VIX was hammered following a false news report regarding the situation in Ukraine.

continued for members…The bigger picture:

SPX remains the cleaner of the two major charts. COMP is still eying the .886 with plenty more downside if it doesn’t hold.

VIX bounced well before it might have following the headfake breakdown and is now eyeing that .382 Fib at 41.36.

Gold has made a potentially significant move, popping above the purple neckline of its IH&S pattern. If this holds, it would probably drag SI along with it. But, for now, the SMA200 is formidable resistance. Elsewhere in currencies, USDJPY is holding up……while EURUSD is breaking down again… …giving DXY another crack at its .618.BTC is getting a small bounce and backtesting its SMA10.Oil and gas are still treading water at obvious overhead resistance. But, what will Putin do?

Last, let’s take a look at the bond market. The 10Y is still marching in lock step with RB. It’s hard to imagine a serious divergence at this point.

The 2s10s, however, continue to plummet after dropping through our 69 bps target. There’s potential support coming at 35 bps. But, after that, the next support doesn’t come until inversion.

This has been driven mostly by the soaring 2Y.

The last two times we had an inverted 2s10s was in late 2019. The time before that was in 2006-2007. As we’ve pointed out before, breakdowns in the 2s10s can cause corrections. It’s the sharp spikes after those inversions – the breakouts – that lead to crashes.

GLTA.