Yesterday, we stated it was time for the bears to put up or shut up. They punted. Thanks to VIX breaking down, SPX and ES are back above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since Jan 20, a move that clearly takes some pressure off.It doesn’t necessarily mean, however, that the the correction is over.

continued for members…

Note that ES and SPX have not broken out of their flag patterns.

And although SPX has broken back into its rising red channel, it has yet to retake its 4.236 Fib extension at 4518.58. If there’s more downside ahead, this would be a good place for the bears to reassert themselves. VIX is in an interesting spot, testing a channel line that hasn’t had much import with its SMA20 just below. Note that its SMA10 is close to rolling over.Part of the downward pressure might come from oil, which seemingly everybody now picks as the top performing sector in 2022. There’s good reason from a fundamental standpoint. Who knows what Wacky Vlad might do in Ukraine?

The chart suggests that CL is at least taking a pause here, with the possibility of digesting some of its gains.

It’s harder to see a reversal ahead for RB except for the fact that it reached a very overbought condition (the RSI chart below) and appears to be rolling over again.This pause enabled TNX to flirt with another downturn.  Nothing major to report just yet, but it looks vulnerable.

The currency front also looks poised for some indigestion. EURUSD is backtesting its SMA10 and a TL of support dating back to November.  While USDJPY’s SMA200 has finally reached the Fib I have expected to provide the best backtest opportunity.

Gold and silver are somewhat confused and directionless.

And BTC has moved slightly closer to a go/no-go decision point on its falling black channel. All in all, yesterday was a fairly typical last day of the month. Today is a new day and a new month. We’re that much closer to Fed tightening. Inflation hasn’t gone away.  Aside from AAPL’s very strong rebound, I think what ails the market is still very much a threat to the bulls.

Stay cautious. If the Fed or the federal government wanted to, they could clearly intervene in oil/gas prices – either politically (pressure on OPEC) or through market intervention (anything from shorting futures to a price freeze.) I think we’re getting to that point where it is definitely being considered.