Powell’s speech will take on added importance following the release of this morning’s hotter than expected Q3 GDP print on the heels of a big ADP miss.

Futures are flat after completing the backtest of the trend line from October we had been expecting.

continued for members…The case is building for a YE channel top tag followed by a large drop targeting the late January/early February.

Is it justified? No. The Fed/economy is still in a very tough spot and there is little chance that we’ll avoid a recession. It will ultimately boil down to the resolve of those working the algos. Currencies continue to prop up stocks – especially EURUSD. GC and SI are making breakout noises again. GC will run into overhead resistance at its SMA200, while SI is contemplating a higher high with little to hold it back unless DXY bounces – which it should.

Oil and gas continue their bounce after making recent lower lows.  CL is facing a backtest of its SMA10 while RB has a ways to go before running into trouble.

The net effect is a slight bump in the 10Y.Pending home sales are due out at 10am ET. But, again, don’t expect too much action before Powell’s 1:30 speech, as it’s the Fed’s reaction to the data that matters more than the data itself.

UPDATE:  3:15 PM

Powell came across as much less hawkish than his most recent talks – suggesting that 50 bps would be just fine for the next hike.

The market liked that, but really loved the 6% plunge in VIX. Who knows how far it will go, but the channel top is currently around 4122. A close above the SMA200 at 4052.45 would obviously support the Santa rally scenario. UPDATE: EOD

And, after all the dust settled…