March ADP payrolls came in at +145K versus +210K estimates, strengthening the stagflation/recession argument. 
Futures have drifted lower following yesterday’s sharp decline, suggesting at least a channel bottom/10-day SMA backtest. Keep an eye out for ISM services coming out at 10ET.
continued for members…
Currencies continue to be mildly supportive, with DXY under pressure from EURUSD and USDJPY. I continue to doubt the DXY will break down, but the tape will tell the story. 
Note that NKD is dumping, backtesting the SMA10 and an internal trendline following last week’s “breakout.”
The other significant move, which argues against DXY bottoming here, is SI. It popped up above its channel top. If it pulls back from the .786 at 25.36, then the downside case is still in force. Otherwise, the .886 and former top will vie for its attention.
GC has also had a nice strong move, pushing above its .886 but still roughly in line with the channel top.
BTC remains stalled at the top of its channel, with plenty of negative divergence via its RSI.
Much of DXY’s fate, of course, will rely on bond yields. The 10Y is back to the same trend line that has supported it since December 7. This TL has even held DXY since it started breaking down below its SMA200, so it’s been pretty impressive. If it fails, we should see a pretty sharp decline.
This would usually correlate with lower oil/gas prices. With CL running into its SMA200 and broken white channel bottom (a backtest) it might help.
And though I added a target up at 2.99 for RB, note that it faces strong horizontal resistance at 2.82ish. This is roughly the level at which Rb traded prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and acted as support in early August 2022 prior to become strong overhead resistance.
I wonder if the pop following the OPEC+ announcement was somewhat overdone, just like the overall markets have not paid much attention to the banking crisis.
The market is now pricing in 100 bps of cuts by the end of the year, which seems quite ludicrous to me – unless markets freeze up and banks starting dropping like flies. It’s an outcome that the 2s10s is pointing to yet again.
Stay tuned.