Futures have bounced back from moderate overnight losses in advance of this afternoon’s FOMC decision.

continued for members…

There’s a very strong consensus that the Fed will pause again. It’s hard to argue with this, although the data has been hotter than expected in most areas since the last decision. The biggest chart happening is the breakdown in VIX over these past two sessions. I would be shocked if it doesn’t drop to or even through the SMA200.EURUSD and USDJPY are both lower, meaning DXY is higher – a net negative for stocks.

While CL and RB are both up sharply despite a slightly drop in the 10Y.

more after the Fed decision…

UPDATE: EOD

The decision and Powell’s comments weren’t terribly dovish, yet the megacap stocks responded as though they were thanks largely to VIX’s decisive dive below its SMA200. Yet, both SPX and ES were unable to push through their SMA200s.

The VX chart shows a clear path to 10.3-10.8 if the SMA50 can’t hold up – which would hardly be surprising… …especially if AAPL’s earnings/guidance come in strong and act as a catalyst for a strong year-end run. It’s been quite a bounce back above the SMA200…so far.

One other note… over the past week, the 2Y has made a couple of lower lows while the 10Y has made a couple of higher lows. It’s too early to read much into this, but the 2s10s is very close to not being inverted any more.  A sharp drop in the 2Y is all that’s needed, and it wouldn’t be positive for stocks.