Futures ramped higher overnight on yet another drubbing of VIX.

It has all the hallmarks of a headfake, however, so caution is warranted for those following along – particularly if VIX holds 26.  Our analog continues to suggest much lower prices in the weeks ahead.

continued for members…Note that the SMA10 has crossed slightly above the SMA20 – worrisome for the bears. However, the same thing happened on Jun 2 (for ES, SPX and DJIA) and the most recent leg down began the very next session.

It was a very effective headfake – the type that gives the big players a chance to lay off their risk on others before any real damage is done.

The little H&S pattern targeting 3531 is obviously being postponed at the very least. COMP is doing the same thing. Note that VIX is at the threshold of a TL breakdown. So, it’s put up or shut up time for the bears.Currencies were mostly quiet overnight, with EURUSD still threatening to drop further and USDJPY merely hinting at a backtest. Gold and silver are at a very perilous point. GC is inches away from a total breakdown after reaching our next downside target at 1770. The flag pattern can’t be stretched any further. There are multiple places where support could come in, but they’re all below 1700.SI just reached our 18.787 target and should get a technical bounce off the red .618.BTC is back above its SMA10 and SMA50, but the crypto space is turning into a real shit show. So, it’s hard to get excited about the prospect of a meaningful bounce at this point.CL and RB have dropped enough over the last few sessions to make our downside targets look more feasible. Today, however, they’re getting a nice relief rally. So, we’ll see how long it lasts once stocks reverse (assuming they do.)

And, last, we can see that TNX is bouncing prior to having completed its own backtest. Keep an eye on VIX today – especially as it approaches 26.16.