Stocks rarely drop over a 3-day weekend. This one was no exception. The miniscule decline we saw in the futures last night has been all but erased despite a conciliatory 5% bump in VIX to backtest its SMA10. No fuss, no muss.

continued for members…The bigger picture is cuing off SPX’s rising white channel which now would have to break down in order to pursue a 3.618 backtest.It’s looking more and more like SPX is determined to break out of the rising yellow channel and continue instead within the rising white channel. We’ll see what happens today.

The ES version:

If VIX can push above its SMA10, then the bears might get a little satisfaction. But, there’s no evidence yet that it might happen. It’s not a coincidence that VIX is right on top of the SMA10 at this time.

Oil and gas are both still holding at important overhead resistance. The headlines indicate a lot of production level drama going on between the Saudis and UAE among others. Given the potential for a breakdown among OPEC+ members, this would be a logical time for prices to correct. I remain bearish.

It would certainly help right-size the growing gap between CL and TNX – which is coming in for a greaser of a landing on the rising red TL.

If it bounces, ZN would presumably fail to retake the white channel midline – or at least fail to break out of the falling purple channel. If it plunges through, ZN should at least reach the purple channel top.This would have interesting consequences for GC which is still bouncing nicely off its channel bottom but faces a SMA200 test in the very near future.

This would set up a potential conflict with DXY which is still showing reasonable strength against both the euro and the yen. Last, BTC is still struggling – having failed to retake its SMA10 or even test its cloud bottom.  Its RSI also failed to break out.

GLTA.