VIX tagged our 34.84 target on Friday – an important breakout in risk – before tumbling back into the safe zone.

With other factors holding their ground and equities’ 100-DMAs still untagged, it’s not at all clear that the worst is over.

continued for members…

VIX is the key, as it has retreated below the purple TL after completing a Bat Pattern at the white .886. If things are to get rougher for stocks, emphasis should shift to the purple grid, whose .382 hasn’t even been tested yet.

The futures charts support the idea that this latest overhead resistance is quite important. The charts still suggest more downside for ES and SPX, though the falling channels are very tight and have thrown off a few headfakes along the way.

USDJPY is still sitting at a precarious point, something you’d never see if TPTB were ready to ignite an equity rally. Likewise for EURUSD’s stall, which has put DXY in position to reach our upside target. Gold continues to tread water while SI continues inching toward out 21.51 target. Oil and gas have, likewise, made no move to ignite a rally. CL is getting a bump, but is still stuck below its SMA200 with its SMA10 fast approaching. I can see another backtest of both, but nothing more than that at this time.

Check out hapless NG, which gapped down through its SMA200, off about 10% on the day and 43% from its highs (the better to bring inflation under control, no?)

Last, 10Y yields continue to plunge. I’ll take a break and then start on a bond update discussing our outlook.UPDATE:  1:10 PM

Decision time for VIX and, thus, SPX…

UPDATE:  EOD

ES backtested its SMA10 and backed off its breakout as VIX tagged the bottom of its latest TL of support. CL officially backtested its SMA200, with its SMA10 due to arrive tomorrow.Bottom line, the downside case is bruised but not broken.  Bond post coming up in an hour or so.