As we settle into the 4th month of the Iran War, note that WTI has risen 11% since last Friday.

It’s finally having an impact on stocks and interest rates.

VX held the line – at least so far – at its .886 retracement, though VIX itself is still in the basement.

Perhaps the most significant chart this morning is the 10Y. It had broken down, which was significant.

But, CL’s ascent has driven it back above the TL from the Feb 27 lows. If it can hold at the confluence of the SMA10 and SMA20 at 4.50%, all is well. If it remains above that level, it would be very concerning.

continuing…