Charts I’m Watching: Aug 1, 2023

With the July meltup finally behind us, futures are off moderately.

continued for membersWe’ll get ISM at 10AM this morning. Given that it’s lower than all but the GFC and COVID lows, it has been a consistent drag on sentiment.

While we’re talking about economic data, there’s plenty ahead this week.

ES is testing its SMA10. Can we finally get a more meaningful dip or is the .886 still in play?

Ditto for SPX…VIX is back above both its SMA10 and SMA20, with another 10/20 cross coming up later this week if the move holds.EURUSD’s SMA200 has finally reached the red TL from the March lows. In other words, it’s a good time to break down if it’s going to test the SMA200. USDJPY is still on the rise – probably to backtest at the .786. Will the algos care? DY has reached its own breakout TLm ,with the SMA200 getting very close.DXY’s strength is sapping that of GC, SI and BTC. CL hints at a push above the Apr highs at 83.53, but I believe central bankers will slap it down before things get out of hand.  Ditto for RB and its Apr highs at 2.8943. The push in CL/RB continue to boost TNX. However, tomorrow’s labor data might provide even more of a boost.