SPX broke out yesterday, driven by a sharp decline in oil prices and in VIX. It landed just shy of the 2.24 Fib extension while exhibiting pretty striking negative divergence. As a result, any disappointment re the supposed “deal” with Iran could result in a sharp pullback.

ES, on the other hand, has a ways to go before reaching obvious resistance. Though it is also showing strong negative divergence.

CL appears to be hung up on its SMA200, though this is a tool that the administration has not hesitated to use in the past. The flag pattern is quite clear, suggesting an upside breakout. Again, will the Iranians acquiesce or will they continue to politically punish the Donald? I suspect the latter, though it’s a losing bet at the moment.

Then there’s VIX and the usual games being played with breakdowns of trendlines and the SMA200.  FWIW, it’s up over 4% this morning even though ES is up 0.50%.

In watching the financial news this morning, it’s almost impossible to find anyone who’s bearish. This alone is reason to be cautious.

Stay tuned.