Futures are off moderately on the first trading day after what was a torrid November. Bears might take some comfort from the overbought Dow, which has reached Fibonacci and channel resistance.

continued for members…

EURUSD is continuing its backtest, while USDJPY is still treading water.

Traders were unimpressed with OPEC+’s actions yesterday, so CL and RB failed to break out… …and the 10Y’s bump went nowhere – so far.It remains broken down below the purple TL…

…which should be a positive for stocks heading into the end of the year as long as the 2s10s behaves. If the boys at the Fed’s trading desk are smart, they’ll drag this out until the end of Q1 2024 but slowly climbing the red TL until a de-inversion or break down is necessary.

Whether it’s enough to offset VIX’s ongoing threat of ongoing collapse remains to be seen.

UPDATE: EOD

Didn’t have to wait too long for that to play out… DJIA closed well above its .886 – 36,245 vs 36,007. SPX is still short of its: 4,594 vs 4667. Note that neither has done a very good job of playing by the Fib rules during the rebound from Oct 22.

DJIA pushed past its .618 after an very small retracement there and didn’t stop until it reached its .707 – at which point it tumbled 9.5%. It also pushed past its .786 before finally reacting almost as much this past summer.

SPX’s pullback began north of its .500 after which it totally ignored its .618. In other words, there’s not much in the way of hints here other than the fact that stocks are melting up and seemingly liking it.