Markets are at all-time highs as we await the FOMC’s latest decision on interest rates.

Note that we’re going on 21 months of a yield curve inversion, the longest since August 1978 to May 1980. Interestingly, the market was flirting with new, all-time highs back then as well.

Also interesting, that was one of many inversions that was followed by a recession. In fact, every inversion was followed by a recession.

Is there any reason to expect that this time will be different?

continued for members…

How is this happening? Another drop from VIX’s SMA200……and, another hold by EURUSD… …combined with USDJPY about to break out to new all-time highs.

UPDATE: 21:00

Nothing very striking about Powell’s testimony, but VIX’s breakdown was all the algos needed in order to decisively push SPX above its 1.272.

VIX broke below its SMA50…

…but more importantly below the TL it’s been bouncing off since Dec 12. Note that the RSI wedge which had resolved in the bears’ favor decided to break out instead.