On the heels of a slowdown in China which was serious enough to cut interest rates, the Empire Fed numbers which came out this morning represent the second largest decline ever.  It was expected to slip from 11.1 to 5.0. Instead, it plunged to -31.3, among the worst readings on record. Aside from the COVID crash, only Nov-Dec 2008 were worse.

Then, there’s Henry Kissinger – who knows a thing or two about global relations – who says we’re edging toward war with China and Russia.

Given all that, futures are off only slightly more than 1/2%.  After all, Friday is OPEX.

continued for members…

The bigger picture shows ES’ megaphone, SMA200, and .618 just above.ES’ triangle is getting very long in the tooth. VIX is still a critical input… For bears to have much of a chance it would need to break above not only its SMA10 but its SMA20 as well.

Currencies seem to be holding out for OPEX…

…unlike oil and gas, which are going to be hurt by China’s slowdown and the potential increase in oil from Iran. Look for rates to continue dropping.There’s plenty more economic data to come out this week, including housing, retail sales and Fed minutes.

Stay tuned…

UPDATE:  12:00 PM

This is just pathetic. And, no one in the media calls BS on it…even more pathetic.

UPDATE:  14:55

While we’re waiting for ES to tag its SMA200, note the other things whose charts show they could go either way – breakout or breakdown. It all boils down to what the Fed has to say on Wednesday and whether VIX ends it meltdown.