After a noteworthy reversal yesterday, we’re getting more of the same overnight gimmickry: “breakdowns” in VIX to facilitate “breakouts” in ES, even at the 5-min level.

continued for members…Nothing has really changed from yesterday, as encouraging as ES’ shooting star candle was for bears.  The upside target remains the SMA200 and channel top, currently at 4325ish.

Currencies are still mostly on the sidelines, but available for stock propping duty.

CL and RB completed their backtests and should move lower from here – though they could also support stocks by going sideways for the next week. Of course, last I checked there was still a war going on in Ukraine and Europe, especially, faces many energy challenges.

A further drop in oil prices would imply that TNX reenters its falling red channel and… …unless equity markets crash and send the 2Y tumbling……would mean a continuation or even widening of the 2s10s.stay tuned…