Today marks the third day in a row that ES has backtested the former resistance at 4190ish. Just a reminder, these things don’t happen by accident.

continued for members…

VIX continues to rule the algos with an ongoing “breakdown” below the TL from Jan 2018.

Likewise, VIX futures continue to toe the TL from March 15.The rest of the equity picture is unchanged. If the neckline holds, all is well for equities. If it doesn’t, then I’d much rather be short.

DXY continues to get a bump from EURUSD – which is threatening lower lows – and USDJPY – which is at least not breaking down. CL and RB are higher following a threat from the Saudis to engineer another bump in crude.

This couldn’t come at a better time for XLE, which has been really struggling to hold on to an important neckline.Even though the debt ceiling crisis is quite likely to be resolved in time, yields continue to inch higher. A lower low in 2s10s is bearish for stocks, but there is greater risk once the crisis is resolved that 2s10s will pop up through horizontal resistance.GLTA