Futures are up moderately as we approach the open.  A House bill that would broaden sanctions against Iran’s oil exports adds to the threat of geopolitical-driven price increases and, thus, higher inflation and interest rates.

With jobs data due out on Thursday and PCE and income/spending due out on Friday, this is the sort of uncertainty that rightfully worries investors.

continued for members…

ES is trying hard to re-enter the rising white channel. So far, so good. But, the 15-min chart makes it look like three fails in a row.
SPX has clearly broken down and would need to top 5031 to re-enter its channel.

Note that VIX is on the brink of an equity saving breakdown. Currencies are still pretty much unchanged other than USDJPY’s very slow creep higher.

Oil remains well supported at its SMA50 with its SMA200 just below, while RB’s SMA50 will provide support in the next day or two. TNX remains in position to break out, but has yet to do so in the absence of a catalyst.It would be a lot easier to forecast the next steps if SPX’s SMA200 were up at 4800 instead of below 4700.  Perhaps that is the next step – a long, slow slog sideways while the SMA200 gets into position – an important backtest without violating the previous high.

Stay tuned…