Absolutely nothing?  Well…vol came under pressure again last night despite the recent 10/20 cross and obvious escalation in risk of military action in Ukraine. Apparently the threat of war is good for stocks.

Nevertheless, the futures heard and obeyed and continue to eye the VIX breakdown threat which works more often than not.continued for members…

The bigger picture:  We now have a bullish 10/20 cross and 50/200 cross in VIX – which is supposed to be quite bearish for stocks.

Note that ES is hovering just above the January lows – likely another delaying tactic. It’s easier to see on SPX that the yellow channel .236 line (marked with white arrows) is being tested again. The downside case is built around a return to the yellow channel midline which is about where the red .382 Fib and 20% off mark are. USDJPY continues to hover at the red TL from the 2021 lows. A backtest of the SMA100 seems almost certain, but has been avoided so far. A SMA200 backtest at the yellow .500 Fib is now much less likely. EURUSD is also hovering… …as is DXY. I will be working on gold today. The recent IH&S breakout resulted, as expected, in another backtest of the broken purple channel. It’s possible it’ll continue to backtest its way higher, but a severe market crunch of 10% or so is more likely to result in a SMA200/neckline backtest.SI reached our SMA200 backtest goal and now has a big decision to make. Again, I’m expecting it to fall along with stocks. But, I need to work on alternative upside targets in case it breaks through the SMA200. I have to believe that the world’s central banks are neck deep in conspiring to crash oil prices. It’s way past due. Bitcoin continues to look ugly, especially with the bearish 10/20 cross resuming yesterday.

Last, some might remember this FB chart from Feb 2.

We added some additional downside targets just in case the important midline didn’t hold. Guess what?

One more thought…remember DBA, the agricultural ETF? We wondered as it approached the top of the falling white channel whether it would reverse, thus providing some hope regarding runaway inflation.

Not only did it not reverse, but it is threatening to bust out of a rising wedge. The inflation problem is becoming more problematic.

GLTA.