Oil has tumbled the past few days, begging the question “what about QE3?” It was supposed to prop up commodity prices. There are many competing theories as to the influence of elections, Saudi assistance, etc. But, the bottom line is CL had tagged some important channel lines and simply corrected. There are some pretty obvious … continue reading →
Tag Archives: harmonics
It’s been a while since our last look at the big picture in NDX. I’ve focused more on broader indices such as SPX, RUT and NYA. And, NDX has been subject to excesses, thanks to the impact its largest component — AAPL — has on its performance. But, over the past several months, it’s been … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: 11:30 AM SPX might be tracing out either a flag or pennant pattern on the 15-min chart. While either could portend higher prices (2/3 of the time), a flag would mean lower prices first — probably down into the mid 1370s. At first blush, the market seems to be respecting the last … continue reading →
There is significant negative divergence on the dollar on both a daily and weekly basis. DX is also very close to completing those harmonic patterns it hasn’t already completed. It’s approaching the .707 of the largest (yellow) pattern, tagged the 1.272 of the next largest (purple) pattern, tagged the 1.618 of the red pattern, nearing … continue reading →
Looks like I jumped the gun Friday, getting back in too early after scoring 15 points on the downside. We have a substantial cushion, being up 626 points/45% since inception on March 22, but I really hate giving any of it back on a off-hours dump like this. As I posted Friday: If you didn’t … continue reading →
Bat Patterns are one of the more common harmonic patterns. They are similar to Gartley Patterns, except that the AB retracement can be anywhere less than the Fibonacci .618 of the XA leg and the AD leg completes at the .886. Because the AB leg can be anything < .618, we have to be a … continue reading →
We’ve been keeping a close eye on the US dollar, which as a safe haven, continues to move inversely to equities. I remember reading Aftershock a couple of years ago. It made the very convincing argument that the US dollar would be destroyed by disastrous fiscal policy and runaway debt. The advice was to dump … continue reading →
Periodically, I like to go through and chart the various harmonic scenarios for both the upside and downside. It helps to pass the time while sitting and staring at the computer monitor, watching our forecast play out (so far, so good.) It’s also helpful in generating a set of potential outcomes for the market over … continue reading →
ORIGINAL POST: As expected, the Fed threatened much but did little – extending Twist through the end of the year. Stocks and commodities didn’t much like it; the dollar is up nicely. If the sell-off holds or accelerates at all, it will confirm the Point B we placed at 1363.46 yesterday — the Fib .618 … continue reading →
Harmony and me…we’re pretty good company. From the moment I first heard about Fibonacci, I was l hooked. A numerical sequence that produces mysterious and magical ratios that show up in everything from the design of pine cones and nautilus shells to the layout of pyramids of Giza and dimensions of the Parthenon? Sign me … continue reading →