March retail sales came in at -1.0% versus -0.4% expected and -0.2% previous. Core slipped 0.3%.  Early reaction is that the drop wasn’t enough to forestall another rate hike in May.  So far, the futures have taken the news in stride.But, it remains to be seen whether the algos will view the setup as positively.  VIX’s previous bounces off the TL from Jan 2018 have been tough on stocks.

continued for members…A closeup:

The view from ES and SPX shows nothing much has changed, even following yesterday’s spasmodic rally that stopped short of higher highs and ES’ neckline at 4187.

EURUSD is back to its channel top and USDJPY remains on the sidelines, so currencies shouldn’t be much help to stocks at this point.

CL and RB remain on a short leash.

And, TNX has backtested its SMA200 again……leaving the 2s10s in a safe zone – for now.

For those looking for a trade, remember that XLU’s cycle says it will sell off sharply between now and mid-June.