Powell threw cold water on the market’s optimistic outlook this morning, suggesting that aggressive tightening will continue.

continuing for members…There is little reason to feel bullish given his focus on fighting inflation and observation that the economy and labor market can handle higher rates.

We should at least see that channel backtest at this point.

Whether it goes any further will continue to hang on the level of manipulation going on in VIX and currencies. VIX backtested the bottom of its rising white channel…

…while the euro’s woes continue to worsen. The slowdown Powell no longer seems to discount will mean lower oil and gas consumption and therefore prices. At least that’s what the charts indicate. RB is nearing our 2.52 target – an important level of support. This is holding TNX in its recent range.

Stay tuned…