With various indices reaching or nearing important overhead resistance, today is shaping up as a moment of truth for a market which has delighted in head fakes.continued for members…

At the risk of repeating myself, ES and SPX are on the verge of an important breakdown or breakout.The charts suggest this morning’s ramp is designed to get DJI to 34,430. But, don’t be surprised if we have to go into the weekend with that question unanswered.

USDJPY is still working for the bears. While GC and SI are finally getting some help from bonds. Remember, a rising ZN has meant a rising GC. And, for now at least, bond yields are falling as prices rise. I know it doesn’t make sense as inflation is spiking higher – but what else is new? The two things still not in the bears’ favor are CL/RB… …and VIX, which is edging lower as the open approaches. A bounce – especially at a higher low – is all the bears need.I have to be out of the office most of the day, but will try to get in an update towards the close.

Ditto for next Monday and Tuesday. I’ll be officially off the clock but will try to post snippets here and there.

GLTA