Last Call

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Despite a few tense moments midday, ES held the TL of support from last Wednesday and has rebounded to within 7.50 points of the important Fibonacci extension and channel top at 4153.62.Will the substantial overhead resistance at these levels matter this time? We’ll know very, very soon.

continued for members…The bigger picture shows ES will likely reverse and backtest somewhere between here at 4153……if TPTB can resist the opportunity to crush VIX and see ES break out of the rising yellow channel. The SPX version shows the same setup, thought the 3.618 backtest target is much further below.And, it would make sense to consider DJIA, which hasn’t quite reached its 3.618.

VIX should continue to drive the narrative and is still in a position to bounce up to its SMA200 at 24.54 in the next few days.The futures have already broken down enough to be influencing the algos.Despite this morning’s very strong retail sales, yields are off slightly – dropping through 1.6% and still hinting at lower – the usual result of an equity selloff.The currency space is all fairly bearish.And, I continue to expect a retreat for CL and RB.