Neither yesterday’s FOMC announcement nor Powell’s press conference produced any meaningful surprises. Yes, the dots shifted slightly, but everyone knows they’ll shift a lot more before long.

Futures easily reached our initial downside target and came within 5 points (so far) of our second. But, the real action was in currencies, which were finally turned loose. Look for EURUSD to finally reach our backtest target where it faces an enormously consequential decision.continued for members…If the red TL doesn’t hold, all hell breaks loose in the currency space – and, potentially equities.

First, let’s look at the big picture for ES/SPX.  Note that SPX’s rising wedge hasn’t yet broken down (the red TL.)  I suspect it will and either the white or purple channel will ultimately flesh out.

And, depending on whether or not ES’ bounce holds, the rising wedge could continue to hold on (though I don’t expect it to.) ES has the same situation – a couple of rising channels to flesh out if it isn’t saved by the usual VIX collapse, etc.

DJI and NKD are still suggesting lower.

No sell orders yet on VIX futures, which are still angling higher into the open.

Oops, spoke too soon. The clumsy smackdown came a little late this morning, but ES just popped back into the green.Likewise, CL and RB remain on the edge of a breakdown. As discussed yesterday, it’s only a matter of time. A quick look at the bond market. The 10Y popped a bit on the dot plot shift, but have stalled out at channel line resistance. The next move should be lower, particularly if/when CL breaks down.

It’s easier to see on the daily chart how dependent the 10Y has been on oil’s rebound. The red TL could end up at the little flag pattern before long, making a backtest less traumatic. But, I’d still like to see the falling yellow channel midline backtested too – ideally around 1.43.  This lends credence to the idea that we’ll get more downside in equities.

From ZN’s standpoint:

And, because the relationship between ZN and GC is on again, let’s take a look at gold’s breakdown. It’s getting very close to another test of the purple channel bottom.Remember, if it breaks down, there’s much more downside potential. SI is finally testing its SMA200 – an important level of support for it. Failure to hold here could see it reach 22-23. Staying on the currency theme…  We noted above how important EURUSD’s red trend line of support is to the dollar. If EURUSD breaks down, DXY’s already impressive rise could be very impressive.

USDJPY’s continues to remind algos not to get too crazy on the downside. But, until it makes new highs, it still has potential to the .618.More later…

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Equities have been all over the map today in a 40-pt range, directed primarily by VIX’s timely collapse. It was quite a battle.

In the bears’ favor, CL’s rising wedge has broken down and is backtesting.

RB came close. USDJPY didn’t break out – though it really didn’t need to in order to keep stocks in the green.

And, DXY is having another banner day – a good sign for the bears, not so great for the gold bugs.