CPI Edges Lower

Futures ripped higher on the news that July CPI came in 0.2% lower than expected on both the monthly and annual headline figures: 0.0% and 8.5%.  Core rose 0.3% and 5.9% – still well above the Fed’s so-called 2% target.

Much has been made of the price drop seen in oil and gas since mid-June. But, it’s important to note that we’ve seen this happen several times before. The July YoY increase of 44.1% has been about the average low ever since Apr 2021, with several highs in the 60% range.

Prices would need to continue to decline in order for the YoY change in August to come in below 40%. And, our charts aren’t that all that convincing that oil/gas prices will continue to decline.  Maybe if we had another COVID lockdown or a nice little recession…

continued for members


Sorry, this content is for members only.

Click here to get access.


Already a member? Login below

Remember me (for 2 weeks)

Forgot Password