Futures are up nicely on a twofer: a not so subtle VIX breakdown… …and a very unsubtle NKD rescue (back above the SMA200 just in time for Q1) courtesy of the BoJ’s USDJPY meddling.

continued for members… The daily VIX chart, with the big gap down, looks a little more impactful… …than the 60-min, which doesn’t show an actual breakdown yet. Note, however, that VIX’s RSI has finally broken down (a good sign for bulls)… …and VX is making a lower low.Thanks to the USDJPY, the EURUSD is taking a breather. Net, net, DXY is up slightly… …but not enough to sustain GC/SI.

CL is threatening another (unlikely) breakout… …while RB appears done.This leaves me to wonder if TNX might also be nearly done – perhaps the SMA50?

If so, where does the 2s10s go?

On Friday, PCE should shed more light on the inflation situation.  I remain of the belief that CPI will tumble nicely over the next couple of months. Just in time, right? The banking crisis needs attention, and I am of the firm belief that the Fed will prioritize the financial system over untenable inflation.

FWIW, the banking crisis will contribute to lower inflation too, as tighter lending conditions will reduce economic activity and curb speculation.

Stay tuned.