ES closed back in its falling white channel following its midday recovery, keeping our target price and date unchanged.

Note: The current forecast page has been updated with targets for SPX, ES, COMP, VIX, USDJPY, EURUSD, DXY, GC, SI, BTC, CL, RB and the 10Y.

continued for members…Note that it’s creeping up on a backtest of the falling red channel it broke out of in mid-March. If it doesn’t reenter the red channel but follows the white channel path, we’re still looking at ES 3997 around May 20.

If it reenters the red channel, there are much lower targets to consider. SPX remains a much clearer picture. VIX still has plenty of upside potential, with the white .382 still the most interest initial target. But, it doesn’t align with the new rising white channel top. So, something’s off with this placement that will hopefully resolve itself soon. The currency picture is also unchanged, with EURUSD slipping further and DXY creeping higher. GC and SI are bouncing slightly after yesterday’s ugly sessions. While BTC continues to slump toward the yellow channel bottom, now around 38,000.CL and RB are also bouncing slightly after yesterday’s losses. Traders are still trying to balance the effects of the China shutdowns against the Ukraine invasion fallout. And, TNX continues its channel top backtest.

All in all, I’d look at yesterday as a bear market bounce driven by our old friend VIX which plunged 15% off its intraday highs.

UPDATE: 3:25 PM

Wondering what the holdup is? Although the right shoulder isn’t big enough to show up on the daily chart, this is technically a H&S Pattern which, in this case, targets 3713. Remember, the 20% target is 3730 – reasonably close.

The white 1.618 at 4153.62 is also important support. A persisting decline below it obviously opens up the yellow 3.618 at 3997.53.