Blockbuster jobs data? Not so much. At 266K versus over 1MM consensus, it was the worst miss since 1998.

The futures initially held the overnight ramp, taking their cues from VIX, which barely budged on the hugely disappointing print. But, VIX also hasn’t (yet) broken down the way it normally would if a full-court press were on to preserve the rally – the kind we saw yesterday when Atlanta Fed President Bostic served up new all-time highs on Dow by insisting that tapering mustn’t even be discussed (lest Death Eaters be summoned!?)

continued for members…This bodes well for bears – if and only if the Dow can fall back below 34,430. If the Fed intends to draw a line there, then the bears will continue to be frustrated. SPX has a very short distance to go to reach new highs as well. The question is whether they’ll hold. The bigger picture on VIX still shows potential to the SMA200, but also very fragile support at the channel bottom  – which is incidentally also the SMA20. USDJPY is also teetering, testing the red TL yet again after pulling back from a purple channel breakout – at least for now.The DXY initially suggested a breakdown, but I’d be surprised to see it remain there. I’d also be surprised to see EURUSD’s “breakout” hold. Likewise, we initially saw 10Ys get a strong bid, which has already been “corrected.” And, don’t be surprised if CL and RB get supported as well. They’re both testing their SMA10s. Last, SI and GC continue to creep higher. GC looks like to test its SMA200 – at which point the Fed would probably like to see it reverse (to support their “no inflation” viewpoint.)

SI has pushed through the initial white TL and looks likely to test the midline of the white channel from the 1970s. Pushing through 27.80ish would open up 29.20 and 31.26 – the top of the white flag pattern. From there, it’s only a slightly bump up to the .382 retracement at 32.322 and, ultimately, the purple .618 at 35.235. For anyone who couldn’t resist jumping on the lumber freight train, we’re seeing a slight reversal at the 3.618. We’ll see if it holds…More later…