Despite a much hotter than expected NFP print, VIX’s convenient collapse… …has once again convinced investors algos that there’s nothing to worry about. The 20-pt drop in futures following the print was erased within minutes.

It’s all in keeping with our year-end forecast, which remains unchanged.

continued for members...

Never mind that it complicates the Fed’s job and/or makes multiple rate cuts in 2024 any less likely. EURUSD and has reached its TL of support. Any lower and it’ll tilt DXY in the bears’ favor. USDJPY has bounced off its SMA200 as expected.

Oil/gas are getting a bit of a bounce…

…which is preserving the 10Y’s TL – for now.