The Reflation Trade

Remember how excited the bulls were about the reflation trade? Higher interest rates meant the economy was reopening at a good clip. What could be better than that?

Things look a little different from the perspective of 3%+, don’t they?

Nothing alarming here… Remember, it’s not the inversions that bite, but the spikes higher which come after. Futures are off again this morning following a strong jobs report, but we’ve yet to punch through Monday’s lows.continued for membersES 3997 could come as soon as today. At this point, it’s all about VIX breaking to new highs…

…and COMP reaching support at 11,643.

For those watching BTC, note that the small flag pattern (salmon colored) finally broke down. Now, it’s up to the large black flag pattern to hold. If it doesn’t, then the yellow channel bottom and .618 await at 28,600. Since BTC has been trading in sync with COMP and COMP won’t reach support until 11,643, I suspect BTC will break down further. But, the bitcoin bulls might try to take a stand here.

Last thought…nothing will stop rates from moving higher except a breakdown in oil/gas prices…

…or a real panic in equities. We’re not really there yet.

GLTA