It’s the last day of a short week packed with more important economic data — which the market has managed to ignore so far. Today might be a little different, as the spike in the savings rate and the collapse in consumption confirm a troubled road ahead for the strong consumer narrative.  Gee, could 25% unemployment actually begin to matter?

Ignore the spike in personal income, as it reflects the massive government stimulus checks sent out last month.

The PCE deflator also surprised, plunging almost to 2009 levels. So far, the futures have managed a muted reaction, with a likely falling wedge setting up following yesterday’s reversal at our channel midline target.But, with China trouble, riots in Minneapolis, and Trump taking a swing at social media darlings, maybe the data will matter for a change.

continued for members…

SPX has been trying very hard to sustain a steeply rising TL, but there’s a lot of pressure here.COMP, AAPL and DB are still sending bearish vibes…

We’ll keep an eye on VIX, which has constructed a triangle. Remember, these can break either way.  But, it will break one way or the other – if not today, then Monday.

Oil and gas continue to slump – but not yet break down.

The biggest surprise (to me) is that DXY broke down below its SMA200 and has nearly tagged its .618. I thought the SMA200 would hold… …and that EURUSD would pull back after testing its own SMA200 as it has so many times before.  I definitely blew that call. The one I got right was USDJPY, which has tagged our SMA20 target pretty precisely.Gold is hinting, again, at a premature run up to the .886 at 1823.60. I know I’ve been saying this for ages, but I think the 10Y yield is finally ready to crater. Could we finally see some pressure on the 2s10s?

A rundown on all the economic data we’ve seen yesterday and today. Note that we’re still due the Chicago PMI and Michigan sentiment.

I have conference calls at 10AM and 2:30 today.  I’ll check back in after a little while.

UPDATE:  12:52 PM

ES and SPX are just about to tag their SMA200s. UPDATE:  12:56 PM

That didn’t take long…watch out for a sharp reversal targeting ES 3023ish. If USDJPY can’t punch through this little TL……or VIX reverse from the triangle top……ES/SPX should see additional downside.

UPDATE:  2:11 PM

ES has reached 3023, its triangle top and SMA5 200……while VIX has tested its triangle bottom and SMA5 200. ES should reverse here if it’s going to.  Be cautious, though, as USDJPY is threatening to break out.I’m going to tune in to Trump’s press conference, and then have a conference call of my own at 2:30.   More later…

UPDATE:  3:45 PM

Textbook VIX smackdown going into the final hour…if they could get VIX below its SMA200……and USDJPY to break out… …they could get ES up to 3076.  What would be interesting is if ES heads up and tags 3076 in the after-hours on Sunday and retreat by Monday’s opening bell. That way, everybody’s happy. Bears should hope that SPX stops short of 3047 today.  It’s no guarantee of further downside – especially given the weekend gamesmanship lately – but it would be a step in the right direction.

CL appears to be focused in on our 41.05 gap target. While DJI is in no-man’s land, with the SMA200 an obvious draw.COMP is still undecided……as is AAPL.