Futures have been all over the map this weekend following the breakdown of the small white flag pattern on Friday.  But, the key factor is that VIX is higher and should experience a golden cross as we approach PPI tomorrow and CPI on Thursday.

Our downside targets remain unchanged with SPX now within a few percent of our analog’s target from this past May [see: Analog Watch.]

continued for members…

Then……and now. The huge divergence, of course, was the gigantic bounce off the June lows which came sooner and higher than the analog originally suggested.

Again, the SPY version is cleaner and easier to decipher.The more detailed ES version:

USDJPY continues to drift higher, supportive of NKD with seems likely to finally test its Feb 2020 highs. EURUSD is back below its SMA10 and flirting with another red channel breakdown… …which puts DXY back on track to 115.283GC has dropped back through its SMA10 and 20 even as we got a bullish 10/20 cross. This doesn’t bode well for gold; if it can’t hold 1666, then it’s on to 1588. SI needs to hold its SMA50 at 19.40 or it also faces new lows.BTC is still hanging on to 19,000.

CL has backtested its channel midline, but could still slip up and backtest its purple midline and SMA200. While RB pushed briefly above its important SMA50 but has slipped back below it. If it can hold the SMA50, the SMA200 is fair game. Otherwise, we’re looking at new cycle lows.So, it’s no surprise that the 10Y is threatening to take out the Sep 27 highs…

…even while it’s being outpaced by the 2Y. It should be a volatile week, with the economic data combining with earnings coming out later this week to allow SPX to test its Feb 2020 highs – ideally in the 3324-3393 range.

GLTA.