Futures are keying off the exact same factors as yesterday. USDJPY is creeping higher and VIX is threatening a breakdown.

Traders continue to face an array of headfakes and misdirection as ES backtests its 200-DMA yet again.

continued for members…

Note that the year’s lows occurred at the same time that ES experienced a death cross (the yellow arrow), and it put in another higher low about the same time as the bearish 10/20 cross (the red arrow.) The key to whether or not the market extends this bounce is VIX, which is on the verge of a breakdown as ES/SPX’s SMA200s get those backtests.

USDJPY continues to edge higher… …as EURUSD lingers near its lows… …and DXY returns to its rising channel.Gold and especially silver are still flailing. BTC is up sharply, backtesting its SMA100.CL and RB continue to flounder, backtesting but inching higher.

Perhaps the pace of the “rises”, however, is making it hard for the 10Y to remain above the .886. I assume we’re going to backtest the yellow channel top at this point, but the trend should remain higher.GLTA.