Stocks were rejected at the 200-day moving average following an aggressively hawkish comment by Fed Chair Powell that a 50 bps rate increase was “on the table” at the Fed’s May 3-4 meeting. The Fed watches charts too, folks, so this was hardly a coincidence.

continued for members…Remember, aside from a crash in the oil markets – which seems highly unlikely any time soon – the Fed has few options to cool down the economy’s inflationary impulses. Much higher interest rates will do the trick, but there’s no free lunch. The Fed knows that the cost will be steep. Maybe a little 20% correction in stocks instead…

VIX’s purple TL has held, and our SPX 4041, 3956 and 3854 targets by mid-May are looking better every day.

The DXY is climbing again… …as GC and SI continue backtesting… …and BTC gives up its recent bounce.

CL and RB are slipping, perhaps ready for their SMA100 backtests… …which is taking some of the upward pressure on interest rates. The 10Y is still loitering around the .886. More later…

UPDATE: EOD

A good start…