You know when the market is in a holding pattern by how VIX behaves. For the most of the past three weeks, we’ve seen sudden collapses in VIX just ahead of the cash open. It doesn’t always last, but it’s very effective in reminding algos to smack the snooze button, “fixing” any overnight declines and sending ES back to within a few points of its all-time highs.

Almost every day for the past several weeks, investors have turned over and gone back to sleep. But, tomorrow, we’ll get some very important CPI and claims data that could change everything.  Are investors in for a rude awakening?

continued for members…

The bigger picture in VIX:

And, in ES:

SPX’s version:

Same story as every other day this week with USDJPY’s threatened breakout…

…CL/RB’s continuing climb……and TNX’s continuing stealth decline.

Gold and silver continue to hang on, a tepid reaction to CPI which has more than tripled in the past five months.

And, contrary to the PR, the hedgers aren’t heading to BTC – which continues to slump as expected.

Note that NKD’s SMA200 is at 27105, just barely below its recent lows at 27225. Will it finally consent to a backtest if it doesn’t have to make a lower low? It would be a 5%ish decline, roughly equivalent to a 6% decline by SPX to its 3.618 backtest… …and a backtest of its SMA100 and 1.272 by DJI.