Will the Fed be able to stick to their “inflation is transitory” shtick this morning? If the financial media is any guide, there are plenty of adherents among money managers. And, why not? After all, there isn’t exactly a clear definition of what transitory inflation means. Is it elevated for 3 months? Six? A year?
When it was just oil and gas’ base effect driving the numbers, it wasn’t that tough to argue that CPI would decline from May’s highs as we approach the end of the year. Assuming gas prices hold current levels, CPI could peak at around 4.2-4.3% and begin a decline into the end of the year. But, with labor, used cars, food, medical, etc. all joining the march higher, there is a very real risk of a much higher print and an upward price spiral that won’t unwind any time soon.
In any case, look for stocks to finally express some doubts – depending on how broken the bond market turns out to be.
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