Maybe Warren Buffett can get through to Congress. In a CNBC interview aired this morning:
“It’s so important that small businesses, which have become collateral damage in a war that our country needed to fight, but we, in effect, voluntarily had an induced shut down of parts of the economy, and it hit many types of small businesses very, very hard… We made some provision for that in March in terms of the CARES Act, but then nobody really knew how long this self-inflicted recession would last with this particular effect on small businesses, so we need another injection to complete the job.”
Congress, the Treasury and the Fed have done a terrific job of “saving” corporations that already had access to plenty of cheap capital and whose stock prices could then vouch for the strong recovery from the pandemic. The rest of the economy? Not so much.
For all the independent restaurants, mom and pop stores, non-big box retailers, things are dismal. And, to all the unemployed folks barely hanging on to their house or their apartment, it will get much worse if Congress doesn’t act in the next few days to prevent them from being evicted during the depths of winter in the midst of a pandemic.
Naturally, futures are up 25 points.
According to VIX, it probably won’t last.
continued for members…
We watch these 10/20 crosses in VIX pretty closely. Today, the SMA10 and SMA20 are at exactly the same level: 22.12. Keep an eye on them, especially as VIX is cratering into the open again.
ES and SPX are still broken down, but could get a pop if VIX is able to plunge below the SMAs and prevent/delay the bullish (bearish for stocks) cross.
Currencies are still slow-walking DXY to 89.88…
…with GC and SI the beneficiaries, at least for the time being. It’s not too hard to imagine the rug being pulled out from under them if DXY has a big bounce at support. 
For now, keep an eye on SI – which is taking another swipe at its channel top. 
Things are pretty quiet on the bond front, with the latest 2s10s breakout put on the back burner for now.
And, CL/RB continue to send mildly bullish signals – a background level of support for stocks. Will it be enough in the event NY shuts down again? Hard to imagine.
I have a few doctors appointments today – follow up for knees and shoulders. I should be back before the close.
GLTA.
UPDATE: 3:55 PM
Another day of ramping with ES nearly hitting another backtest target and still on the cusp of a breakout/breakdown with VIX still showing SMA10 and SMA20 at the same level – currently 22.10.
FWIW, ES didn’t quite reach yesterday’s highs.
Nor did SPX – which is closer than ES to its 1.272 Fib.
VIX should cross tomorrow.
Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see CL continue eeking out small daily gains.
Another false alarm for USDJPY and DXY – neither of which made a lower low.
