Will Congress come up with an aid package? Unless they act now, millions of our neighbors are set to lose their unemployment benefits in the next two weeks. After the new year, they’ll also lose their eviction/foreclosure protection. “Merry Christmas” from our public servants. More like “good luck.”

Meanwhile, the market continues its meltup in anticipation of stellar retail sales and a vaccine rollout which will result in only another 100-150,000 deaths.

And the FOMC is wringing its hands, trying to figure out why historically low interest rates aren’t helping those who can’t borrow.

continued for members…I have a few errands to run this morning, so will post the charts below and return with commentary in an hour or so.

Same drill as yesterday, except that VIX’s 10/20 cross is official – which should weigh on stocks.

If the backtest of the falling red channel holds, then the 1.272 is still in play. Otherwise, we still have an abundance of downside targets.

Note that 10/20 cross, with lots of upside targets but perhaps the most meaningful being the dashed yellow TL where the SMA200 will intersect.Still no ripping the bandaid off the DXY – at least yet. More of the same for USDJPY – a frog in boiling water. CL will make a higher high this morning – has now been six weeks since it dropped below its SMA10. RB is forming a nice rising wedge. Interesting that SI has broken out. We’ll see if it can hold these gains till EOD. Nothing near as dramatic for GC: a lower high that didn’t even reach the purple channel midline. UPDATE:  1:10 PM

Coming up on the Fed announcement and presser and we’re seeing a fairly typical triangle pattern. VIX still suggests that stocks sell off, though I’m a little leery having seen so many nonsensical OPEX/Fed/YE rallies over the years.

UPDATE:  3:33 PM

ES just reached its .886 and TL (again) – a good place for the bounce to falter if it’s going to. SPX is on the cusp of a new high. VIX still points to lower stock prices.