VIX collapsed in the nick of time yet again, busting ES’ latest falling channel.

Has the run to the year-end barn begun already?

VIX is actually back above the SMA10, but the 20% plunge back below the white channel line was enough to drive equities up and out of the most obvious path to lower prices.There is still a chance for a bullish (bearish for stocks) 50/200 cross, but time is short. The equity picture is not looking so good for the bears – at least if we’re going to see a SMA200 and 10% correction which backtests the broken white channel.Note that ES’ SMA200 is only 8 points away from clearing the Sep lows. As we discussed last month, this has been a consistent pattern  – allow a backtest only when it results in a higher low.For SPX, it’s a 23-point margin and the basis for the red target we’ve had around Nov 19 (OPEX) for the past 6 weeks.On the factor front, both CL and RB are still sliding. But, despite its recent rollover, USDJPY is back to threatening a breakout.EURUSD has now officially backtested the purple channel top. I’ll post more on this shortly. This leaves DXY still in a breakout, with only trendline resistance standing in the way of our upside target.Gold and silver are backing off as expected, though GC pushed slightly above its neckline before doing so.  I have adjusted the downside target for GC. The primary target is the SMA200, but there’s a good chance it will wait until the rising red TL and the gray channel top intersect at around 1806 on Dec 23.BTC continues to slide sideways, holding its SMA10 but not very convincingly. The 10Y is popping again, pushing above the white flag pattern top – this after a momentary breakdown on Nov 9. more later…