Durable goods ex transportation fell by 0.3% in January, slightly more than expected. Futures rose slightly on the print, but are essentially flat ahead of the important consumer confidence reading.

continued for members…

The upside case remains intact despite almost reaching another level of overhead resistance that could result in a long overdue backtest of an important Fib level such as SPX 4857 or even 4818.

Most of the factors supporting a pullback have been quite stubborn re playing out. VIX continues to slip lower…
…and, EURUSD is still loitering around its SMA200… …while, DXY hasn’t yet bounced much off its SMA200. CL and RB are bouncing this morning, but they haven’t made any real upside progress since mid-Feb highs. The latest news points to a possible ceasefire in Gaza, which would likely alleviate some of the upside pressure.  Likewise, TNX has remained in a very tight range of 4.24-4.35 since Feb 16.My latest thinking is that PCE, due out on Thursday, represents the best opportunity for a pullback. Failing that, the charts point toward some equity difficulties around Mar 12-15, perhaps after the Feb CPI is released.

Watch for consumer confidence, due out at 10am ET. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

GLTA.